Decided to write this thread early in order to avoid the crush on Sunday. Should there be any significant events or injuries that occur between today and game day, I will post any relevant modifications if appropriate. So now to my analysis and selection for the game.
New England is led by QB Tom Brady who has thrown for 225 ypg, with a 59.5% completion rate and a 25-13 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 84.4. He is protected by an OL that has allowed 31 sacks but will be without starting C Damian Woody. The running game is led by Antowain Smith averaging 3.7 ypc and Kevin Faulk averaging 3.6 ypc. The receiving corp is led by Deoin Branch with 62 receptions (13.5 ypc), Troy Brown with 49 receptions (11.7 ypc) and David Givens with 46 receptions (13.1 ypc). Faulk added 52 receptions (9.2 ypc). This offense will face a Carolina defense which allowed 4.0 ypc rushing and 205 ypg passing, with a 57% completion rate and a 19-24 TD to interception ratio and an opposing QBR of 69.0 and a third down efficiency of 34.7% and had 49 sacks.
Carolina is led by QB Jake Delhomme who has thrown for 205 ypg, with a 59.7% completion rate and a 22-17 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 83.5. He is protected by an OL that allowed 30 sacks. The running game is led by Stephen Davis averaging 4.6 ypc and DeShaun Foster averaging 3.8 ypc. The receiving corp is led by Steve Smith with 102 receptions (14.1 ypc), Mushin Muhammad with 65 receptions (16.1 ypc), and Ricky Proehl with 28 receptions (14.1 ypc). Foster added 30 receptions (7.8 ypc). This offense will face a New England defense allowing 3.6 ypc rushing and 220 ypg passing, with a 53% completion rate and a 13-34 TD to interception ratio and an opposing QBR of 56.2 and a third down efficiency of 38.6% and had 49 sacks.
The New England special teams are below average as P Ken Walter had a net average of 33.6 yards and K Adam Vinateri hit only 74% of his field goal attempts. The return teams have provided the Patriots with good field position however. The Carolina special teams are very good with P Todd Sauerbrun having a net average of 35.6 yards and K John Kasay hitting 84% of his field goal attempts. The return teams have provided good field postiton for the Panthers as well.
When looking at these two teams it is striking how similiar many of the statistics are for this match-up. However, there are some real fundamental key issues that surface. First, is the question of the New England offense. Feeling here is that the Patriots will find it very difficult to run against the Panthers front four. If this is so, then the Patriots become one dimensional and will have to rely on a more than capable QB Brady. But, the Patriots have relied on the short passing game to move the ball. Their receivers, although capable, are not separation type athletes and we fully expect the Panther corners to be able to stay tight with these receivers as they did in all three playoff games, particularly against the Eagles who have similiar receivers. Remember back, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger and Quincy Carter looking down field and being unable to find open receivers. We expect the same to occur here. Thus the question becomes how are the Patriots going to score. Second, is the question of the Carolina offense. Duly respect well coached New England defense under HC Belichick that can be confusing, but feeling here is physical Panther offensive line will open up enough holes for Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster to effectively run the ball thereby allowing QB Delhomme to be successful in play action passes to very dangerous receivers Smith and Muhammad. We see the Carolina offense being two dimensional and able to move the ball into scoring position and put points on the board. Third, the special teams edge favors the Panthers to provide perhaps the better field position. Fourth, the Patriots played both of the playoff games at home with a supportive crowd and climate conditions while the Panthers had to play their last two playoff games on the road in hostile environments and still played tough and came out with wins. Last, the Panthers have relished the position of being the underdog that nobody believes can win and have come together to win in the same situation the last two games.
In viewing the fundamentals of this game in their entirety, it is evident that this game will be a tough, hard nosed, defensive battle. Neither offenses are prolific but Carolina should have an edge. The Patriots defense is good but so is the Panthers. We believe this game is very close and therein, the line provides the value. From the outset, we believed the line was significantly wrong in this game. It opened at 7 and we believe the correct line should have been 4. Feeling here is that either team can win this game outright, but expect it to be very close. With these type of circumstances, it makes our play on this game a strong one and not just because it is the Superbowl. Hence,
3* Carolina +7
Overall Unit Record YTD: (85-69.4) 55.05% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(7-4)(+7.8) 1*(59-51-2)(+2.8)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (67-55-2) 54.92%
NFL Record YTD: (13-12-1)(-2.7)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (7-4)(+4.6)
NCAAB Record YTD: (26-31-1)(-8.3)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All. Enjoy the game!
New England is led by QB Tom Brady who has thrown for 225 ypg, with a 59.5% completion rate and a 25-13 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 84.4. He is protected by an OL that has allowed 31 sacks but will be without starting C Damian Woody. The running game is led by Antowain Smith averaging 3.7 ypc and Kevin Faulk averaging 3.6 ypc. The receiving corp is led by Deoin Branch with 62 receptions (13.5 ypc), Troy Brown with 49 receptions (11.7 ypc) and David Givens with 46 receptions (13.1 ypc). Faulk added 52 receptions (9.2 ypc). This offense will face a Carolina defense which allowed 4.0 ypc rushing and 205 ypg passing, with a 57% completion rate and a 19-24 TD to interception ratio and an opposing QBR of 69.0 and a third down efficiency of 34.7% and had 49 sacks.
Carolina is led by QB Jake Delhomme who has thrown for 205 ypg, with a 59.7% completion rate and a 22-17 TD to interception ratio and a QBR of 83.5. He is protected by an OL that allowed 30 sacks. The running game is led by Stephen Davis averaging 4.6 ypc and DeShaun Foster averaging 3.8 ypc. The receiving corp is led by Steve Smith with 102 receptions (14.1 ypc), Mushin Muhammad with 65 receptions (16.1 ypc), and Ricky Proehl with 28 receptions (14.1 ypc). Foster added 30 receptions (7.8 ypc). This offense will face a New England defense allowing 3.6 ypc rushing and 220 ypg passing, with a 53% completion rate and a 13-34 TD to interception ratio and an opposing QBR of 56.2 and a third down efficiency of 38.6% and had 49 sacks.
The New England special teams are below average as P Ken Walter had a net average of 33.6 yards and K Adam Vinateri hit only 74% of his field goal attempts. The return teams have provided the Patriots with good field position however. The Carolina special teams are very good with P Todd Sauerbrun having a net average of 35.6 yards and K John Kasay hitting 84% of his field goal attempts. The return teams have provided good field postiton for the Panthers as well.
When looking at these two teams it is striking how similiar many of the statistics are for this match-up. However, there are some real fundamental key issues that surface. First, is the question of the New England offense. Feeling here is that the Patriots will find it very difficult to run against the Panthers front four. If this is so, then the Patriots become one dimensional and will have to rely on a more than capable QB Brady. But, the Patriots have relied on the short passing game to move the ball. Their receivers, although capable, are not separation type athletes and we fully expect the Panther corners to be able to stay tight with these receivers as they did in all three playoff games, particularly against the Eagles who have similiar receivers. Remember back, Donovan McNabb, Marc Bulger and Quincy Carter looking down field and being unable to find open receivers. We expect the same to occur here. Thus the question becomes how are the Patriots going to score. Second, is the question of the Carolina offense. Duly respect well coached New England defense under HC Belichick that can be confusing, but feeling here is physical Panther offensive line will open up enough holes for Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster to effectively run the ball thereby allowing QB Delhomme to be successful in play action passes to very dangerous receivers Smith and Muhammad. We see the Carolina offense being two dimensional and able to move the ball into scoring position and put points on the board. Third, the special teams edge favors the Panthers to provide perhaps the better field position. Fourth, the Patriots played both of the playoff games at home with a supportive crowd and climate conditions while the Panthers had to play their last two playoff games on the road in hostile environments and still played tough and came out with wins. Last, the Panthers have relished the position of being the underdog that nobody believes can win and have come together to win in the same situation the last two games.
In viewing the fundamentals of this game in their entirety, it is evident that this game will be a tough, hard nosed, defensive battle. Neither offenses are prolific but Carolina should have an edge. The Patriots defense is good but so is the Panthers. We believe this game is very close and therein, the line provides the value. From the outset, we believed the line was significantly wrong in this game. It opened at 7 and we believe the correct line should have been 4. Feeling here is that either team can win this game outright, but expect it to be very close. With these type of circumstances, it makes our play on this game a strong one and not just because it is the Superbowl. Hence,
3* Carolina +7
Overall Unit Record YTD: (85-69.4) 55.05% 5*(1-0)(+5.0) 3*(7-4)(+7.8) 1*(59-51-2)(+2.8)
Overall W/L Record YTD: (67-55-2) 54.92%
NFL Record YTD: (13-12-1)(-2.7)
NCAAF Record YTD: (21-8)(+22.0) (Final Bowl Game Record 19-8 Included)
NBA Record YTD: (7-4)(+4.6)
NCAAB Record YTD: (26-31-1)(-8.3)
Plays are rated 1*-5*
Good Luck All. Enjoy the game!
